Second Level Thinking

Ideas to help you see things differently.

Every fortnight I share one idea from my own work and reading on leadership, decision-making and performance. Free, straight to your inbox.

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The Doomer’s Dividend

The Doomer’s Dividend

Published on: 24/09/2026

Issue 52: AI labs warn of catastrophe and ask to slow the race. Follow the incentives, and the push for safety starts to look like regulatory capture.

Oh, Australia

Oh, Australia

Published on: 11/06/2026

Issue 47: The AI boom has split the world into two economies. Why Australia sits on the wrong side, and the policy choices keeping us there.

Compute’s 1983 Moment

Compute’s 1983 Moment

Published on: 21/05/2026

Issue 46: CME is launching compute futures. The real question is who controls the benchmark underneath, and four camps are fighting for it.

The Forces Shaping Markets This Year

The Forces Shaping Markets This Year

Published on: 15/01/2026

Issue 40: A macroeconomic and markets outlook for 2026, from growth, inflation and policy to AI, stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities and the key risks.

Why Your "Mental Accounts" Are Costing You Money

Why Your "Mental Accounts" Are Costing You Money

Published on: 29/05/2025

Issue 30: Examining the sunk cost fallacy and how we organise our lives. Plus, why strategic laziness is a required form of founder discipline.

A New Framework for Money and Success

A New Framework for Money and Success

Published on: 08/05/2025

Issue 29: Shifting your financial relationship and building a personal success engine. Featuring Roger Federer’s radical take on "practicable" talent.

Updating Your Model: Markets and Mindsets for 2025

Updating Your Model: Markets and Mindsets for 2025

Published on: 23/01/2025

Issue 22: A guide to the market landscape for 2025, and why Richard Feynman’s approach to un-becoming is the ultimate competitive advantage.

Is the US Recession Here?

Is the US Recession Here?

Published on: 08/08/2024

Issue 12: The US recession indicators, the yen carry trade unwind and what drove the selloff, plus Roger Federer on why perfection is impossible.

Finding Purpose and Market Misconceptions

Finding Purpose and Market Misconceptions

Published on: 30/05/2024

Issue 9: Why economic data and public sentiment are miles apart, and a framework for finding purpose when the outside world feels chaotic.

A Goal Setting Framework and Copper Highs

A Goal Setting Framework and Copper Highs

Published on: 16/05/2024

Issue 8: A framework for setting and actually hitting your goals, the copper supply squeeze explained, and why others' success is worth celebrating.

Applying the 80/20 Principle and Gold Highs

Applying the 80/20 Principle and Gold Highs

Published on: 02/05/2024

Issue 7: How to apply the 80/20 principle to your business and life, and what gold's surge to all-time highs tells us about inflation and instability.

Implementing Deliberate Practice and a Strong US Dollar Wreaks Havoc

Implementing Deliberate Practice and a Strong US Dollar Wreaks Havoc

Published on: 18/04/2024

Issue 6: A step-by-step guide to deliberate practice for elite performance, the fallout of a strong US dollar, and one-way versus two-way door decisions.

Breaking Cycles: From Bad Habits to Inflationary Oil

Breaking Cycles: From Bad Habits to Inflationary Oil

Published on: 04/04/2024

Issue 5: A framework for forming good habits and breaking bad ones, and what is driving the current surge in oil and how it ripples through the economy.

Better Decision Making and the New Japan Trade

Better Decision Making and the New Japan Trade

Published on: 21/03/2024

Issue 4: A six-step framework for better decisions, and why global investors are piling into Japan as the Nikkei breaks 40,000.

Deep Logic: Mastering Second-Level Thinking

Deep Logic: Mastering Second-Level Thinking

Published on: 07/03/2024

Issue 3: How to out-think the consensus with second-level thinking, and the second-order impacts of Nvidia, 'the most important stock'.

Deep Work and the Sunset of a Superpower

Deep Work and the Sunset of a Superpower

Published on: 22/02/2024

Issue 2: A framework for deep work and flow, why anxiety is a choice, and what happens when an industrial giant like Germany begins to contract.

Mastering the Day While Markets Shift

Mastering the Day While Markets Shift

Published on: 08/02/2024

Issue 1: Why competence matters less than confidence, a framework for mastering your daily tasks, and what's next for China's struggling economy.